UT Rio Grande Valley

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	229.0
Current RPI:	229
Expected SOS:	222
Current SOS:	222
Current Record:	13-17
Expected Record:	13-17
Current Conf Record:	6-9
Expected Conf Record:	6-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-3
Current OOC Record:	7-8
Expected OOC Record:	7-8
Expected OOC RPI:	221
Expected OOC SOS:	249

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-17	229.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UT Rio Grande Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	106-111	L	0%
11-13	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	H	92-74	W	100%
11-15	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	75-82	W	100%
11-18	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	75-58	L	0%
11-20	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	63-75	W	100%
11-22	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	A	78-68	L	0%
11-25	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	76-82	L	0%
11-28	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	95-64	L	0%
11-30	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	A	78-60	L	0%
12-2	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	67-69	W	100%
12-6	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	82-78	W	100%
12-9	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	73-59	W	100%
12-16	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	65-86	L	0%
12-22	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	A	102-83	L	0%
12-30	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	H	80-69	W	100%
1-6	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	A	61-73	W	100%
1-11	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	A	74-87	W	100%
1-13	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	84-71	L	0%
1-18	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	76-84	L	0%
1-20	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	H	76-79	L	0%
1-27	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	A	81-87	W	100%
2-3	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	90-67	L	0%
2-8	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	H	83-81	W	100%
2-10	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	68-66	W	100%
2-15	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	85-68	L	0%
2-17	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	84-72	L	0%
2-22	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	59-83	L	0%
2-24	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	83-75	W	100%
3-3	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	H	71-86	L	0%
3-8	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	N	77-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UT Rio Grande Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UT Rio Grande Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UT Rio Grande Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	26.41	26.41	43.75	43.75	-3.30	-3.30
Seattle	WAC	5.79	5.79	51.85	51.85	0.21	0.21
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.28	4.28	82.14	82.14	2.75	2.75
Grand Canyon	WAC	4.27	4.27	66.67	66.67	1.42	1.42
Utah Valley	WAC	4.18	4.18	62.96	62.96	1.08	1.08
Chicago St.	WAC	4.12	4.12	3.57	3.57	-3.83	-3.83
UMKC	WAC	4.12	4.12	25.93	25.93	-1.98	-1.98
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	4.11	4.11	36.00	36.00	-1.15	-1.15
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	3.39	3.39	33.33	33.33	-1.13	-1.13
Grambling St.	SWAC	1.88	1.88	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
North Texas	CUSA	1.83	1.83	44.83	44.83	-0.19	-0.19
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.81	1.81	59.26	59.26	0.34	0.34
Texas St.	SB	1.81	1.81	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
UT Arlington	SB	1.78	1.78	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.78	1.78	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Rice	CUSA	1.77	1.77	17.86	17.86	-1.14	-1.14
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.75	1.75	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
UC Irvine	BW	1.72	1.72	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	1.69	1.69	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.69	1.69	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Texas A&M	SEC	1.69	1.69	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
SMU	Amer	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.29	0.29	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
New Orleans	Slnd	0.28	0.28	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
UTSA	CUSA	0.26	0.26	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.24	0.24	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.24	0.24	10.71	10.71	-0.19	-0.19
UTEP	CUSA	0.22	0.22	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.22	0.22	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.22	0.22	12.50	12.50	-0.16	-0.16
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.22	0.22	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.19	0.19	24.24	24.24	-0.10	-0.10
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.19	0.19	80.65	80.65	0.11	0.11
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.18	0.18	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.18	0.18	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.18	0.18	8.00	8.00	-0.15	-0.15
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.16	0.16	84.85	84.85	0.11	0.11
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.16	0.16	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.16	0.16	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	32.00	32.00	-0.05	-0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.14	0.14	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
Cal Poly	BW	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
UMBC	AE	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	0.10	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Charlotte	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01